Episode 281: Protests and Public Dissident in Serbia with Vjosa Musliu

In this episode, Dominic Bowen hosts Vjosa Musliu to analyse the growing wave of protests and dissent across Serbia. Together, they examine the EU’s influence, the controversial lithium extraction agreement, and the role of media bias in shaping public opinion. From political repression to Serbia–Kosovo tensions, they trace how civil rights and democracy are being tested in one of Europe’s most complex regions.

Vjosa Musliu is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the VUB. Her research interests include international and European interventions, conflicts and international political economy. Her area of focus is primarily the Balkans and post-Soviet space. She is a co-editor of the Routledge Series of Studies in Intervention and Statebuilding and co-founder of Yugoslawomen+ Collective, a collective of six academics from the post-Yugoslav space working in ‘Global North’ academia She is also a board director at the Youth Initiative for Human Rights Kosovo. She is the author of three books and dozens of journal articles in the field of international relations. Before entering academia, she worked as a journalist in Kosovo. Vjosa is based between Belgium and Kosovo.

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Introduction to Serbia's Recognition Campaigns
• 1:59 Protests and Public Dissent in Serbia
• 4:40 EU's Role and Influence in Serbia
• 11:06 Media Bias and Political Repression in Serbia
• 13:32 Intimidation and Erosion of Civil Rights
• 15:41 Tensions Between Serbia and Kosovo
• 18:51 Potential for Conflict Between Serbia and Kosovo
• 20:12 International Risks and EU's Changing Role
• 25:23 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Transcript

Vjosa Musliu [00:00:00]: There have been multiple cases in which we have seen not only Serbia engaging in recognition campaigns against Kosovo—that means convincing specific sovereign states to revert their recognition of Kosovo—even though such recognition does not carry weight under international law.

Elisa Garbil [00:00:20]: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organizations worldwide.

Dominic Bowen [00:00:30]: Hi. Welcome to the International Risk Podcast, where we unpack the topics that matter. I’m Dominic Bowen, your host, and today we’re discussing Serbia at a crossroads: elections flagged for serious irregularities, pressure from Brussels over Russian sanctions, and persistent flashpoints with Kosovo. To unpack the risk landscape, I’m joined by Associate Professor Vjosa Musliu, an expert on European interventions and the Balkans. Professor Musliu, welcome to the podcast.

Vjosa Musliu [00:01:00]: Thank you for having me, Dominic. It’s a great pleasure to be here.

Dominic Bowen [00:01:05]: The current leader in Serbia has increasingly consolidated power. He’s employing tactics typical of authoritarian regimes: repressing protests, controlling media, using state resources to influence elections, and framing dissent as foreign interference, even when it isn’t. Political opposition faces harassment, and public supporters of protests suffer disciplinary measures. Police units have spread fear across many communities.

Despite initially appearing as a pro-European reformist, he has shifted toward closer alliances with Russia and China, adopting strong nationalistic and anti-Western rhetoric. This trajectory has sparked widespread protests, with many observers noting parallels to previous authoritarian regimes in the region.

Can you describe what you’re seeing from Brussels and from the people you speak with? What’s happening on the streets of Belgrade today?

Vjosa Musliu [00:02:00]: In addition to what we’ve seen in the media, Serbia has been engulfed in waves of protests since November last year. They started following the death of sixteen people after the collapse of a concrete canopy at the renovated Noad train station. Initially, these protests began as student blockades in Belgrade and Noad, then spread to other cities.

However, it would be shortsighted to view these protests solely as a reaction to that tragic accident. They reflect long-standing anger and dissatisfaction with the increasingly authoritarian grip of the ruling party, led by Aleksandar Vučić. Over more than a decade, the Serbian Progressive Party has steadily eroded political rights, civil liberties, independent media, and civil and artistic organizations.

The government’s response to the protests continues this pattern of repression against political opposition, civil society, and intellectual dissent in Belgrade.

Dominic Bowen [00:04:00]: The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) produced their final report on the December 2023 elections, citing misuse of public resources, media bias, and voter pressure. This undermines political and policy predictability, which is concerning not only for Serbians but for Europe as a whole.

Two years on, how close is Serbia to a tipping point between reforms driven by the protestors or further consolidation of authoritarian rule?

Vjosa Musliu [00:05:00]: We cannot talk about Serbia in isolation without considering the EU’s role, especially for countries in the accession process like Serbia. Following the 2023 elections, EU interventions—such as the lithium extraction agreement signed between the European Commission and the Serbian government—became crucial. This agreement allows the EU to extract Serbia’s lithium for its green transition, reducing reliance on China.

While these agreements advance EU interests, concerns about democratic backsliding and erosion of political rights in Serbia have largely been overshadowed. The EU faces multiple crises—financial instability, sanctions on Russia, the war in Ukraine, the Gaza conflict, and migration—which complicate its attention to Serbia’s democratic deficits.

This green transition has become a central EU project, sometimes prioritized over the protection of political freedoms in the Western Balkans.

Dominic Bowen [00:08:00]: That’s a narrative that might be difficult for Serbians and advocates of the rule of law to digest, but it’s important. Considering the protests, the regime still maintains control through media, narrative distortion, and selective repression. How long can this regime tolerate dissent? Or is it robust enough that protests are unlikely to influence change?

Vjosa Musliu [00:09:00]: There are two dimensions to consider: what happens with the protests inside Serbia and how the regime leverages them geopolitically.

The protests have been massive but fragmented. Many groups within the movement push diametrically opposed agendas—some pro-Russia, some expressing anti-Albanian sentiments—which weakens the overall message. This insularity has limited regional support and hindered accountability for the regime’s domestic and regional policies.

Dominic Bowen [00:12:00]: Serbia ranks 96 out of 180 in the Press Freedom Index. Media capture and economic pressure complicate information verification. How should firms, diplomats, and advisors triangulate truth in such an environment? How do you distinguish fact from spin?

Vjosa Musliu [00:12:30]: It’s a daily challenge. Algorithmic media amplifies problems, but even before digital media, Serbia’s press—especially tabloids—used polarizing, inflammatory, and anti-Albanian rhetoric. The regime actively leverages these narratives to delegitimize protestors, intimidate critics, and depoliticize dissent.

There’s also broader intimidation. For instance:

• July 2024: Cancellation of the Bertan Festival, which aimed to bring together artists and activists from Serbia and Kosovo. Organizers received threats, including a decapitated pig head with a hateful message.
• Belgrade Theater Festival: A Swiss playwright was banned for criticizing Serbia’s lithium extraction agreement with the EU.

These are examples of how civil and cultural freedoms are being eroded alongside press freedom.

Dominic Bowen [00:16:00]: Turning to Kosovo: tensions center on territorial control, ethnic divisions, and sovereignty. Serbia has threatened military action in response to Kosovo’s efforts to assert authority in northern municipalities. Past clashes have involved armed groups and Kosovo Police, including a 2023 incident where a Serbian-trained paramilitary group smuggled heavy weapons into Kosovo. How concerned are you about potential conflict?

Vjosa Musliu [00:17:00]: Animosity has increased, and reconciliation traces from over a decade ago have largely disappeared. Serbia has conducted campaigns to revoke recognition of Kosovo, though such recognition has no legal weight. Serbia also actively provokes violence, particularly in Northern Kosovo, which reinforces Kosovo’s securitization discourse and distrust toward Serbs.

While military escalation would also implicate NATO, maintaining a frozen conflict can serve domestic political purposes in Serbia, diverting attention from internal issues.

Dominic Bowen [00:20:00]: Looking globally, what international risks concern you most?

Vjosa Musliu [00:20:30]: From a Brussels perspective, the volatile international order—transactional and opportunistic—is worrying. EU engagement with the Western Balkans has shifted from normative commitments to transactional deals:

• Serbia’s lithium deal
• Denmark sending inmates to Kosovo in exchange for green transition funds
• Italy sending asylum seekers to Albania

These arrangements treat Western Balkan countries as sites for EU environmental and human “waste,” raising questions about the ethics of Europeanization and the future shape of EU integration.

Dominic Bowen [00:25:00]: Thank you for connecting those seemingly disparate issues. It’s been incredibly insightful.

Vjosa Musliu [00:25:10]: Thank you for having me, Dominic. It was a pleasure.

Dominic Bowen [00:25:15]: That was Associate Professor Vjosa Musliu on Serbia, EU relations, and Kosovo. Please subscribe to the International Risk Podcast for more episodes and updates.

Elisa Garbil [00:26:00]: Thank you for listening. For more episodes and articles, visit internationalriskpodcast.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, BlueSky, and Instagram.