The International Risk Podcast

Episode 270: Syria in Turmoil: Unraveling the Present, Forecasting the Future with Broderick McDonald

• Dominic Bowen • Season 5 • Episode 270

Share episode

Today Dominic Bowen hosts Broderick McDonald on the podcast to discuss the future of Syria. They dive into the different external actors and their interests, the challenges that the new government of Syria is facing, the fine line of institutional reform and unity, the need for inclusion of the minority groups, what the impact is of sanctions relief, lessons from Syria for global conflict, and much more!

Broderick McDonald is a Research Fellow at Kings College London’s XCEPT Research Programme and a Research Associate the Oxford Emerging Threats Group. Prior to this, he served as an Advisor to the Government of Canada and was a Fellow with the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC). Broderick's writing and commentary has appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Financial Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and The Globe and Mail amongst others. Alongside his research, Broderick provides expert analysis for a range of international news broadcasters, including ABC News, BBC News, BBC America, CBC News, Good Morning America, France24, and Al Jazeera News.

Broderick currently serves on the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism’s (GIFCT) Independent Advisory Committee and the GLOCA Board of Advisors. He previously lived in the Middle East and has conducted extensive fieldwork with combatants from ISIS, HTS, and other armed groups. Alongside his research, Broderick has advised governments, NGOs, law enforcement agencies, intelligence agencies, international prosecutors, parliamentarians, AI Safety Institutes, frontier AI labs, and social media companies on security threats and emerging technologies.

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.

The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.

Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!

Tell us what you liked!

Dominic Bowen: Hi, I'm Dominique Bowen and I'm the host of the International Risk Podcast. And today we're gonna further dissect Syria's unfinished transition after Assad's fall. The honeymoon period, if there ever was one, is definitely over. And now the new government in Syria needs to start demonstrating legitimacy.

There's timelines that need to be met, there's expectations from neighboring countries. And to unpack all that, we're gonna be joined by Bro McDonald. He's a research fellow at King's College London’s Accept research program and he's a research associate at Oxford's Emerging Threat Groups. I'm really excited to have this conversation with Bro today and I think we'll get really good insight on what's happening in Syria, the current volatility, and hopefully the future of the new government in Syria.

Broderick, welcome to the International Risk Podcast.

Broderick McDonald: Thanks for having me.

Dominic Bowen: Look forward to chatting, Broderick. We've spoken to a few guests recently about the current situation in Syria and everyone's coming from their own perspectives and seeing different things and speaking to different peoples. What's your current understanding?

There's so many people — Israel, the USA, Turkey, Syria of course — there are so many people with real and very significant interest in Syria. What are you seeing happening in Syria at the moment?

Broderick McDonald: It's a real challenge because Syria sits at the heart of the Middle East, and because of that you have all of these external actors, many of which you just mentioned, all vying for a piece of Syria and trying to shape what the future of Syria will look like.

And while I think it's good that we see interest in Syria after 14 years of relative isolation, we also are concerned now that Syria is gonna become a country which is heavily influenced by all these external actors and oftentimes in very negative ways.

And so I think when we look at whether it's Russia and Iran, or even Israel or the United States or the European Union and each of their interests in Syria, I think we need to emphasize two things. First, countries should come and engage with Syria now, but it should be non-exploitative. And secondly, they should try to help Syria rebuild at this stage. It's far too early for Syria to contribute in a meaningful way to external countries. It will get there eventually, but right now the focus needs to be on rebuilding after 14 years of civil war.

Dominic Bowen: You raised quite a few really interesting points there, Broderick. And of course, some of the actors you mentioned, they're gonna have very different interests. Russia's interests and Iran's interests in Syria are probably gonna be very different from Israel or the US and the European Union. But as you said, the priority has to be to get the country back on track. It was a healthy middle-income country before the civil war. Yes, politics were terrible, yes there was lots of unnecessary suffering and corruption, but it wasn't a terrible country by many metrics.

So as the country starts to look towards and its new leaders really look towards forming governments, forming government institutions, what are you looking at and how should they be balancing the need to rush institutional reform with actually getting it right?

Broderick McDonald: They have two big priorities right now. The first is the state-building and institution-building, which needs to be done carefully. Syria is a very diverse society, with many communities — Druze, Alawites, Kurdish, Christian, and many others, across different segments of society, gender, religion, and economics. All these communities need to be integrated into the new Syrian state.

That’s challenging in the best of times. Given the 14 years of conflict, tensions and resentments have built up between communities. So state-building must not be rushed. It needs to be slow, consultative, and inclusive, not token appointments here or there.

The second priority is keeping Syria together. There are challenges both internal and external — in the south, northeast, and coastal areas. Balancing institutional reform with uniting the communities is a real tension the new government must navigate.

Dominic Bowen: Yeah, donors and external partners want visible milestones, but Syrians want electricity, water, paychecks, education, healthcare. The gap between expectations and state capacity is where the government could fail. What indicators would you track to see if Damascus is building internal legitimacy alongside international legitimacy? And what thresholds would make you worry?

Broderick McDonald: The most important thing is real progress on the ground, measured by infrastructure and cost of living. Costs have gone up under the Assad regime and, early on, there was some progress as international goods entered the market. But recently, costs have risen again.

You need to see if people can afford bread, food, energy in a reasonable manner. Progress here is meaningful. Sanctions relief and donor money on larger projects like energy and infrastructure could help, but it depends on the government maintaining international legitimacy.

Dominic Bowen: You mentioned minority groups earlier. There’s a real risk of exclusion of minorities and opposition groups. What mechanisms are needed to ensure genuine political inclusion?

Broderick McDonald: Two things are critical.

  1. Transitional justice: Independent inquiries into conflicts and abuses, integrated with community participation, not dictated by the central government. The government must act self-critically, even prosecuting members responsible for atrocities.
  2. Institutional reform: Giving minorities a voice in democratic elections and parliament. Long-term inclusion is essential, but it should start now with transitional justice.

Dominic Bowen: So talking about priorities — service delivery, democratic elections, governance — which should come first?

Broderick McDonald: Right now, Syrians are primarily concerned with service delivery and cost-of-living issues — kitchen-table issues. Infrastructure, law and order, electricity, fuel, cellular networks — this is where the new government has expertise from its governance in Idlib. That should help improve Syrians’ standard of living in the short term.

Long-term, democratic reforms and institutional building will require support from donors like the EU, US, and UK.

Dominic Bowen: On sanctions relief — have any countries lifted or removed sanctions? How will that impact Syria?

Broderick McDonald: Yes, the UK, US, EU, and others have lifted partial sanctions. This helps Syrians access food, medicine, and trade. Syria historically had strong business communities, especially in Damascus and Aleppo. Sanctions relief can unleash entrepreneurial expertise and help Syria become sustainable, rather than reliant on aid.

Dominic Bowen: What about the risk of Syria becoming a proxy battleground for Russia, Iran, the West, and Europe?

Broderick McDonald: There’s a risk, but the leadership is pragmatic. They reached out to Russia strategically to secure interests without being dominated.

Countries must avoid exploitative deals that sell off strategic assets or fund armed groups. The focus should be on what’s right for Syria, not external actors.

Dominic Bowen: Now that the civil war is over, what lessons can we learn for other conflicts?

Broderick McDonald: Ignoring “forgotten conflicts” creates blind spots. Continuous monitoring, local engagement, and development work prevent conflicts from reigniting. Cutting budgets for these programs may save money short-term but costs more long-term.

Dominic Bowen: What international risks concern you most?

Broderick McDonald: Great power competition is important, but smaller conflicts and counter-terrorism remain critical. Steady, minimal engagement helps prevent larger problems later.

Dominic Bowen: Thanks, Broderick, for sharing your insights.

Broderick McDonald: My pleasure.

Dominic Bowen: And thanks to our listeners. The International Risk Podcast is on YouTube. This episode was produced by Elisa Garbil. For more episodes, visit internationalriskpodcast.com. Follow us on LinkedIn, Blue Sky, and Instagram.