Episode 267: Drones Over Poland, Drills on the Border: How Moscow Tests NATO’s Resolve with Antoine Renaux

With the Zapad Military exercises occurring again near the Polish border, Dominic Bowen has Antoine Renaux on the podcast. They analyse the challenges of NATO, Russia's probing operations, NATO's response, and more importantly, NATO's preparedness. Find out more about Article 5 and the potential scenarios, why hybrid warfare and cyber attacks are the future and the geopolitical risks we are facing. 

Antoine Renaux is an Economic Intelligence & Geopolitics Analyst, his expertise lies in defence and security policy, economic intelligence, and geopolitical risk analysis. His career spans strategic intelligence, public affairs, and policy analysis roles across both public and private sectors, giving him a nuanced, operational understanding of complex international dynamics.

His key areas of expertise lie in:

• OSINT & competitive intelligence in the defense industry.
• Policy & geopolitical analysis, including diplomatic reporting at the French Embassy’s Military Representation in Austria.
• Event & project management, including contributions to high-profile initiatives such as the Warsaw Security Forum.

His approach combines precision, strategic insight, and actionable analysis to support decision-making in high-stakes environments. Motivated by a passion for strategy and security, I aim to contribute where analytical rigour, geopolitical awareness, and clear communication can make a decisive impact.

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.

The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Introduction to NATO's Challenges
• 1:37 Analysing Russia's Probing Operations
• 4:32 NATO's Response and Preparedness
• 6:02 Zapad Military Exercises
• 10:26 Potential NATO Article 5 Scenarios
• 19:35 Cyber Attacks and Hybrid Warfare
• 25:15 Global Geopolitical Risks

Transcript

[00:00:00] Antoine Renaux: Think. There is a perception that NATO is not strong enough and did not adapt it enough to the new kind of warfare.

[00:00:05] Elisa Garbil: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organizations worldwide.

[00:00:15] Dominic Bowen: Hi, I'm Dominic Bowen, host of the International Risk Podcast. Russian drones are no longer harassing just Ukraine—they’re now violating NATO airspace over Poland and Romania. What might once have been dismissed as technical glitches is now deliberate, systematic, and dangerously provocative.

These aren’t just drones entering Europe—they’re probes. Each incursion tests NATO's reflexes, rules of engagement, and Europe’s political will. Add to this the Zabar military exercises on NATO's Eastern Flank—tens of thousands of Russian and Belarusian troops rehearsing invasion scenarios—and we’re staring at one of the most volatile confrontations in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

Wars rarely begin with declarations—they begin with a spark: a drone strike, a miscalculation, a border skirmish. Right now, these sparks are flying over Poland and Romanian skies. The question is no longer if Russia is willing to test NATO, but how far it will go and whether the West is prepared for a day when drones kill civilians on NATO soil.

Today we’re joined by Antoine Renaux. Antoine is an economic intelligence and geopolitics analyst specializing in defense and security, where policy, economic intelligence, and geopolitical risk intersect. His career spans strategic intelligence, public affairs, and policy analysis across public and private sectors. Antoine, welcome to the International Risk Podcast.

[00:02:00] Antoine Renaux: Welcome, and thank you for the invitation. Great pronunciation of my name.

[00:02:10] Dominic Bowen: Thanks, Antoine. Many analysts call these drone flights “probes” of NATO’s air defenses. It seems realistic that Russia is trying to normalize violations of NATO sovereignty, lowering the threshold for war. Do you agree? Is Europe sleepwalking into accepting hostile acts as routine?

[00:02:30] Antoine Renaux: Absolutely. The drones over Poland on the night of September 10th were clearly a probing operation. Russian and Belarusian authorities claimed the drones ended up in Poland due to jamming over Ukraine, which is partially true, but the sheer number of drones crossing 300 kilometers into Polish territory, including routes near major logistical hubs like Soff—through which 80% of NATO support to Ukraine passes—indicates a deliberate intelligence-gathering operation. None carried explosives, but many were camera-equipped and capable of reconnaissance.

[00:04:00] Dominic Bowen: Soff is indeed a critical transit point for Ukraine. The buildup of air defenses there is significant, so it’s unsurprising Russia is probing and testing capabilities. Considering hybrid and gray-zone warfare, how likely is a deliberate escalation, and what thresholds might trigger a NATO response?

[00:05:00] Antoine Renaux: It’s early to tell. Polish, EU, and NATO authorities emphasize de-escalation, despite a real sense of urgency. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called it the highest risk of confrontation since the Cold War. Four drones crossing lightly is different from 19 drones penetrating 300+ kilometers into NATO territory—escalation risk is much higher. NATO has yet to reinforce posture significantly.

[00:06:00] Dominic Bowen: And the Zabar exercises—they’re massive joint drills by Russia and Belarus, simulating large-scale offensive operations, including invasions of Poland and the Baltic states. Should NATO start calling these what they really are: pre-war drills?

[00:07:00] Antoine Renaux: Zabar exercises show intimidation more than preparation for war. The 2021 exercise had troops reinforced and later sent to Ukraine. However, the Russian invasion in 2022 failed, showing their operational limitations. Zabar 2025 could reflect lessons learned, but it remains primarily a political test and intimidation tactic. The coordination with drones probing NATO defenses reinforces this.

[00:10:00] Dominic Bowen: On NATO resolution—what red lines should be established to deter Russian provocations without escalating further?

[00:10:15] Antoine Renaux: Delicate balance. Poland’s authorities did not classify the drone incursions as acts of war, though they violated airspace. Putin is a risk-taker and opportunist—weaknesses are exploited. NATO must reform and adapt to low-cost modern warfare; otherwise, Russia perceives weakness.

[00:12:00] Dominic Bowen: Interesting point. NATO unity has been surprisingly strong, but if a Russian drone killed civilians on Polish soil, would Article 5 really be triggered, or might the alliance be bluffing?

[00:13:00] Antoine Renaux: NATO would likely invoke Article 5. The question is operational capacity: numbers of troops, equipment readiness, and coordination across 30 members. Civil society support is another factor—countries like France, UK, and Germany face internal unrest. Mobilizing populations and defense industries to sustain long conflict remains uncertain.

[00:16:00] Dominic Bowen: NATO has issued clear statements that attacks on members trigger collective defense. But how prepared are states politically and militarily today—not in 10 years—to honor Article 5?

[00:17:00] Antoine Renaux: Poland and Romania have political support, but military modernization is incomplete. Poland’s two new brigades are under-trained with new equipment. Across NATO, rapid deployment is possible, but sustaining operations is uncertain due to societal, political, and industrial limitations.

[00:20:00] Dominic Bowen: Cyber attacks and hybrid operations could count as Article 5 violations if impact is comparable to conventional attacks. How realistic is that?

[00:21:00] Antoine Renaux: Cyber attacks against vital infrastructure are increasingly part of modern conflict. The Russian strategy leverages Western vulnerabilities while avoiding conventional escalation. NATO’s response is limited—mostly declarations and security support for Ukraine.

[00:22:00] Dominic Bowen: Russia likely bets on weaknesses in NATO and European states to limit unified response. Are there real vulnerabilities?

[00:23:00] Antoine Renaux: Yes. Russia may overestimate EU weaknesses, but vulnerabilities exist. NATO cohesion varies across members; local political, economic, and military factors influence response capability.

[00:24:00] Dominic Bowen: Nuclear doctrine influences Western caution. Does fear of escalation make NATO more vulnerable?

[00:24:30] Antoine Renaux: Nuclear fear affects decision-making, but conventional escalation is also a concern. Russia exploits risk-taking tendencies to probe NATO without triggering full-scale war. Hybrid and non-conventional tools are part of this strategy.

[00:25:00] Dominic Bowen: Antoine, what global risks concern you most as an intelligence analyst?

[00:25:15] Antoine Renaux: US-China competition is top priority, but Europe is more concerning due to imbalance between NATO capabilities and Russian forces. The probability of miscalculation or escalation is low but significant, and that’s frightening.

[00:28:00] Dominic Bowen: Thank you, Antoine, for unpacking this.

[00:28:05] Antoine Renaux: Thank you for inviting me.

[00:28:10] Dominic Bowen: That was Antoine Renaux, economic intelligence and geopolitical analyst. For analysis and updates, subscribe at internationalriskpodcast.com. This episode was produced by Elisa Garbil. I’m Dominic Bowen. Thanks for listening.

[00:28:30] Elisa Garbil: Thank you for listening to the International Risk Podcast. For more episodes and articles, visit internationalriskpodcast.com and follow us on LinkedIn, Blue Sky, and Instagram.